Date: 3 months ago   Category: Economy

Why the hryvnia becomes cheaper this time


For dollar in the cash market give already 28 hryvnias and before arrival of a mission of the IMF of prerequisites to strengthening there is no national currency. However, as well as for cardinal falling of hryvnia exchange rate, experts say. Why rate of national currency falls this time? The foreign exchange market in figures the National Bank has sold For the third quarter in the interbank foreign exchange market about half a billion dollars. In particular, 215 million - in a week when every day I left with foreign currency sales. By results of an auction last Friday the average rate of sale has made 27,93 UAH/dollars
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Seasonal fluctuations hryvnia shows all the time after transition of National bank to floating exchange rate formation mechanism in 2015. The last years at the end of summer - an early autumn traditionally there is a depreciation of hryvnia.

Flexible exchange rate formation mechanism means that the exchange rate in Ukraine is defined by a ratio of supply and demand which both situational, and fundamental market factors influence. That is the course isn't established directly by National Bank as it was till 2015.

Depending on a situation hryvnia can become stronger or weaken in relation to the American dollar. And the task of the NBU consists in smoothing of excessive fluctuations which result from situational factors. Besides, the Central Bank has to protect, and ideally - to accumulate reserves for a case of more serious crises.

"If factors which have developed in economy cause pressure upon easing or strengthening of a course, then the course has to move in the necessary direction, and the National bank doesn't counteract this movement. A task of National bank - not to keep hryvnia exchange rate at the certain level, and to reduce intensity of fluctuations and, therefore, to prevent deterioration in expectations and formation of risks", - the vice-chairman of the NBU Oleg churi explains. Who is guilty? Seasonality, foreign markets, IMF and inefficient Ukrainian economy. On the one hand, before a business season demand of the companies for currency grows. With another, energy resources in the world don't become cheaper what you won't tell about the main articles of the Ukrainian export.

"An export ratio to GDP in Ukraine makes nearly 50%. In exportoriyentirovanny China - less than 30%. Therefore we are very dependent on demand for key positions of export - agricultural products, metals, chemistry. This dependence can disappear only at powerful development of the Ukrainian economy for a long time. Conditionally speaking when GDP grows twice (not less than in 10 years at an economic miracle), the dependence on foreign markets won't be so notable", - the economist, the teacher of Kiyevo-Mogilyansky business school Alexey Gerashchenko explains.

according to the vice-chairman of the Center of economic strategy Maria Repko, a factor of the IMF also haunted players of the market and strengthened their concern, the missions of fund continuing to the official announcement of arrival to Kiev in September. Arrival of a mission - a positive signal that allows to reduce psychological pressure and improve

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