Date: 6 months ago   Category: Politics

Whether there will be a war: consequences of murder of Zakharchenko, three main scenarios

Alexander Zakharchenko's murder can potentially influence not only a situation in so-called DPR, but also in general on the conflict in the east of Ukraine.

"Country" analyzes three main scenarios of succession of events.

1. Change of the leader without shift
Even in the spring in unrecognized "republics" rumors that Zakharchenko will be displaced from the post have started walking. Different options of his discharge from a position were discussed - beginning from an example of the former head of LPR Igor Plotnitsky who has left the post owing to a revolution in the republic before leaving from the post as a result of "elections" which were expected in the fall.

Then sounded three most probable candidates of his successors - "the speaker of parliament of the DPR" Denis Pushilin, the former head of Donetsk "Alpha", the founder of battalion of separatists "East", the being "secretary of the Security Council of the DPR" Alexander Hodakovsky and the ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Alexander Bobkov.

After Zakharchenko's murder in Donetsk by the interim head of DPR became on August 31 Dmitry Trapeznikov who was earlier holding a post of "the Deputy Prime Minister of the DPR". In the middle of two-thousand Trapeznikov worked as the development manager the fan movement of FC Shakhtar.

In December, 2016 when Trapeznikov still was the Deputy Prime Minister of the unrecognized republic, Alexander Hodakovsky called him "eminence grise" of DPR.

"At us is the Deputy Prime Minister Dima Trapeznikov whom I considered the press secretary of Shakhtar all the time, and he in general was the creative producer who is responsible for the fan movement. And this person has now gathered such force, competes with mister (Alexander) Timofeev ("the minister of income and collecting the DPR", - the Editor's note) who at us is considered nearly is stronger than Alexander Zakharchenko. And he sits, he is put through administration of the Russian president and self-satisfied sits. He has shot Leshchenko's leg (the head of administration of "the head of the DPR" of that time, - the Editor's note) in a competition rush... The person has suffered, now him it is visible is heard, but Trapeznikov at us the eminence grise", - Hodakovsky told about him. "Trapeznikov resolved by

very many issues in the DPR long ago, remaining in the shadow. In appearance ordinary-looking bureaucrat. Even I don't imagine what he will differ from Zakharchenko at this position", - the famous Donetsk volunteer Enrique Menendes says to "Country".

meanwhile, had to undergo "elections" of heads of the republics in DPR and LPR in the fall. However in August there have passed persistent rumors that they will be postponed indefinitely. As a talk on it became more active right after Putin's meeting with Merkel, many observers have decided that thus Moscow lets know that it doesn't want to pile on the agony, and is ready structurally for implementation of the Minsk Agreement, passing thus "ball" on the Ukrainian side. the Ukrainian side just has to resolve by

an important issue this fall.

In October, 2018 will expire period of validity of the Law of Ukraine on the special status of Donbass. Deputies already prolonged this law with scandal in October of last year.



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