Date: 4 weeks ago   Category: Economy

The NBU loses control, even confidential measures don't help: scary forecasts become a reality


The jump of a course on cash
market
as a result becomes the main reason of growth of quotations on Mezhbank demand for cash dollar allows financiers to raise quotations that in turn pulls itself increase in quotations on Mezhbank.

Should note that the difference of cash and non-cash courses attracts more and more speculative capital that besides urges forward a course.

This process continues to be aggravated that says that a currency swing this year has begun earlier than usually. The foreign exchange market not childly is in a fever and the NBU can't especially do anything with it yet. These are not situational distortions, but the serious application for essential devaluation of hryvnia.

According to information, Natsregulyator has sold in the "silent" mode up to 30 million dollars within a course 27,51 hryvnias yesterday and nevertheless to evening of quotation have grown to 27,49/27,52 hryvnias that is obviously not a limit.

the Only chance now to level a situation is approach of the period of tax payments.

Traditionally at this time exporters dump currency for repayment of debts to the state, and buyers have no special funds for buying up of currency. It helps hryvnia to hold the positions and the National Bank very much counts on repetition of such scenario and in August. However so far it remains only hope. Realities of the market indicate the opposite.

besides, devaluation of hryvnia is favorable also to the government at which revenues of the budget and growth of devaluation income due to increase in tax and customs revenues at increase in a course go to pieces - suits officials. It is always possible to tell "about покращення" and at the same time especially really not to reform anything.

At international venues proceed currency rallies for euro and I cut that adds an intrigue and to the Ukrainian Mezhbank on these currencies. According to forecasts - today a game on devaluation of hryvnia will continue, and volatility of quotations of all currencies will only increase.

For August 16 is expected a rate of 27,55-27,75 hryvnias with active attempts to warm a course. A strategic objective of speculators - 28 hryvnias for dollar.

Also Politeka wrote that to clients of the Ukrainian bank will be disconnected by cards, in what the reason.

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