Date: 9 months ago   Category: Economy

The collapse of ruble gains steam

The ruble has resumed decrease on Monday after currencies of developing countries which recede before the rising in price dollar again.

Despite the rising in price oil which has struck through the level of 78 dollars for Brent barrel by the end of a substantive session at the Moscow Exchange ruble has dumped 53 kopeks in relation to "American" and has lost almost all growth shown at the end of the last week.

Dollar exchange rate with calculations has risen up to 68,0775 rubles "tomorrow", euro has risen in price for 74 kopeks, up to 79,1150 rubles.

have helped to Strengthen ruble at the end of the last week massed currency sales by the large Russian participant of the market which, by data Sberbank of CIB, offered for sale lots on 300-400 million dollars.

But Friday growth was obviously "inadequate", the dealer of large Russian bank has told Reuters: on Monday the mysterious seller of dollars has left the market, having left ruble in private with risk of sanctions and capital outflow.

On Monday weaken the majority of currencies of EM again: the rate of Turkish lira has dropped by 1,4%, despite a promise of the Central Bank "to correct monetary policy", the South African rand has lost 1,3%, Indian rupee - 0,3%, and the Indonesian rupee has failed to a minimum since 1998. Meanwhile against ruble the accelerating inflation begins to play

, the analyst of BKS Igor Rapokhin specifies.

For August increase in prices has dispersed from 2,5% to 3,2%, and it is not a limit, the chief economist of RDIF Dmitry Polevoy warns: in December inflation will exceed a 4 percent reference point of the Central Bank, and next year - because of the falling ruble and increase in the VAT - will go beyond 5%.

Inflation depreciates investments rubles and frightens off foreign investors, but at the Central Bank, perhaps, there are no good recipes: any decision on a rate at a meeting will be on September 14 a negative for the foreign exchange market, the director of the analytical department "Loco-Invest" Kirill Tremasov says.

"Investors will wait for increase in a rate and if he doesn't occur, then the attack to ruble can become the answer. If the Central Bank raises a rate on 25 bps, then investors can decide what begins (a growth cycle of rates (which was never limited to one increase) that as a result can strengthen even more pressure upon federal loan bond and besides, for ruble", - Tremasov explains.

For the last 20 years ruble has endured four "explosive" devaluations, each of which passed according to the same scenario, the chief of department of the capital markets of the IMEMO of RAS Yakov Mirkin notes.

"fixed" Ruble exchange rate, he sharply lagged behind ruble inflation, at the expense of an ultrahigh interest rate and inflow of the speculative capital for carry-trade in the Russian market "soap bubbles" which burst as soon as "hot money" directed on an exit were inflated, Mirkin says.

As if the jammed plate, the same plot was played in 1996-98, in 1999-2008, in 2009-2014 and is again played now. Opportunities for carry-trade "were narrowed", but so far remain, and "the ruble is waiting in the wings to fall when there is something sharp", Mirkin adds.



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