Date: 5 months ago   Category: Economy

Not to stop decline of ruble any more


The speculative mechanism which created illusion of durability of the Russian currency is undermined and possibly at all will be dismantled by

Such opinion the economist Igor Nikolaev has expressed.

Falling of a rate of the Russian national currency to psychologically important levels of 70 rubles for dollar and 80 rubles for euro sets thinking on the reasons of this situation and increase of negative tendencies in the Russian economy. It is characteristic that the ruble flash in relation to the main world currencies occurs against the background of rather high price of oil. About the reasons of the events and about approach of a world economic crisis the observer of Rosbalt was told by the director of Institute of the strategic analysis Igor Nikolaev.

- What you explain the fact that the ruble has handed over psychologically important boundaries on the relation both to dollar, and to euro?

- At once I want to notice that ahead and others "psychologically important levels"...

- you consider that decline of ruble will continue?

- Yes. When you analyze this situation, you understand that it is result of those factors which already work and will continue the impact on her and in the near future. For this reason of reasons for optimism it isn't enough.

- About what factors you speak?

- First of all, is about sanctions pressure. For investors becomes more and more obvious that the sanctions against a sovereign debt, most unpleasant for Russian ruble, will be imposed. In the same way as after the recent events it became known that the second package of sanctions, connected with business by Skripalya, after publication of additional data, will also hardly be "for show". Very serious measures which will mean, for example, restrictions on export import can be included.

But nevertheless, the restrictions, most unpleasant for ruble, are those which will concern a sovereign debt of Russia. First of all, the ban on purchase of the Russian state bonds as before the recent past it was the main speculative mechanism of maintenance of ruble exchange rate.

the Scheme a kerri-trade (carry trade - the strategy of receiving have arrived in the foreign exchange market at the expense of a difference in interest rates, - Rosbalt) worked just, including, and here, at the market of the Russian bonds. Not without reason the share of nonresidents in our market has reached 34% this spring. After introduction in April of the American sanctions she began to decrease and now makes about 26%-27% that is serious reduction. At the same time the share of foreign investors will decrease further.

Thus, that speculative mechanism which created illusion of durability of the Russian currency is undermined now and will be possibly dismantled if not completely, then percent on ninety this year. Investors understand it and it is a key factor of depreciation of the ruble. Plus is also others. For example, escape of investors from emerging markets that we observe not only in Russia, but also in other countries. Rates of national currencies fall in Turkey, the Republic of South Africa, Argentina, India.

- What else factors work today on

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