Date: 10 months ago   Category: Economy

Moody' s has counted consequences of new sanctions of the USA against Russia


New American sanctions against Russia will hardly lead to considerable consequences for country opportunities for attraction of borrowed funds, considering their limited scale and in fact duplication of last sanctions of the USA. Analysts of Moody's in the new report hold such opinion.

However, they warn that in the U. S. Congress much more serious sanctions against Russia which can "aggravate structural restrictions of growth of the Russian economy are discussed and will lead to new problems with financing for the national and private banks".

Since Monday, August 27, have begun to work the sanctions of the USA against Russia imposed in response to an incident in Salisbury where the former officer of GRU Sergey Skripal and his daughter Yulia have been poisoned.

New sanctions mean the ban for export to Russia of goods and technologies which are controlled by the American regulators by criterion "National security". As it is noted in the report of Moody's, the new ban will reduce future export of the American goods to Russia by hundreds of millions dollars that in comparison with total exports ($12,6 billion in 2017) it isn't a lot of. Besides, the new bans are imposed on the sanctions imposed at the U.S. President Barack Obama.

of the USA won't be limited to one round of sanctions because of "has put Skripal" if Moscow doesn't satisfy a condition of Washington. It is, in particular, about the admission to Russia of the international experts in chemical weapon. Russia, most likely, won't satisfy conditions and will fall under new sanctions, consider in Moody’s. Analysts expect that sanctions of the White House will be less rigid, than restrictions which are prepared in the Congress. At the beginning of August in the Congress have submitted the bill of protection against "aggression of the Kremlin" (DASKAA) which assumes sanctions against large Russian state banks and a national debt.

"Strengths of credit policy of Russia - the budget and external financing - will help the government to react to perhaps more serious sanctions, but more negative impact on a banking system and growth, especially via channels of trust and investment will be probable to have strict and wide sanctions", - it is said in the report.

Negative effects will affect at first monetary policy, the Bank of Russia can slow down interest rate reduction or even to raise her because of risk of growth of the forecast for inflation and ruble depreciation. "Summing up of

the results, potentially more strict sanctions will increase risk that the medium-term growth of Russia will be contained by such structural factors as the chronic shortage of investments, dependence on the oil and gas sector and high level of poverty and inequality", - analysts conclude.

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