Date: 5 months ago   Category: Economy

Foreign exchange market: as far as the course will sink and that can prevent it


On Wednesday in the foreign exchange market the distortion of supply and demand, but this time - towards growth of volumes of currency sales is again observed.

The matter is that after day off - on Tuesday currency revenue was enlisted in the USA of Monday (Day of Veterans) into accounts of the Ukrainian companies and on the auction will go today obligatory sale actually for two workers in Ukraine of day. It will work in favor of hryvnia and gives it quite good chances to press dollar at the auction, and the NBU will have an opportunity to fill up reserves due to redemption of surplus of the offer on Mezhbank.

But continuation of growth of liquidity in a banking system can spoil such favorable deal for hryvnia. Corresponding accounts for the Wednesday morning rose 1 billion hryvnias - up to 57.6 billion. And despite unevenness of distribution of this hryvnia among banks - such hryvnia canopy will press on the market.

Will benefit from it several large banks having the main volumes of liquidity in a system and those from speculators who have the sufficient volume of hryvnia resources for work.

At competent entry into the market these large banks will wait for decrease in quotations, and only then will begin to buy up the cheapening currency for closing of the client applications and replenishment of own currency position. Speculators will both adapt to actions of large players, and to earn in the mode "in two parties". The impact of growth of the remains on corresponding accounts of banks on a course will be limited volumes of client applications and the sizes of own currency position of banks.

Tactics of National Bank will not change today. At excess of the offer over demand - surplus the regulator will redeem in GCR. In a case, increase in demand and increase in quotations - the NBU will try not to spend reserves and will leave with sale only if the course flies up over 28.05 hryvnias that nevertheless at today's deal on Mezhbank - is improbable. Probably the corridor of 27.90-28.10 hryvnias for dollar so far completely suits National Bank and it tries to hold the market in these limits. The NBU will apply if something happens Matching.

of Mood of the foreign exchange market
of
of Mood and statistics of poll of our respondents on prospects of hryvnia remain for it positive.

At an official rate - 84% (yesterday there were 77%) considers that the dollar will be lower than 28.00 hryvnias. 16% of respondents are sure of its return to level over 28.01 hryvnia in the nearest future.

On interbank-76% (there were 65%) considers that the dollar will be lower than 28.00 hryvnias. 24% of respondents are ready to return of quotations higher than 28.01 hryvnias in the next days.

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