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Date: 7 months ago 2018-11-26 15:00 Category: Economy
For 4 years Ukraine should pay more than 20 billion debts
K to what such haste? But because at the beginning of the next week it is necessary to report on its acceptance to the IMF at which the question of crediting of Ukraine is already included in the agenda of the next meeting, writes Hvil.
Adoption of the budget in later terms excludes a possibility of making decision on allocation of a tranche the near future... whether
It is possible to do without it?
Ukraine, really, in a difficult situation of the forthcoming big payments for debts.
of All of payment for debts in 2019 $14.8 billion (repayment of loans for $5.1 billion $9.7 billion percent for their use), from them:
- external payments of only $6.3 billion
- internal payments of only $8.5 billion
Also the budget is put the plan for loans for $12 billion, from them by $5.1 billion in foreign markets, the rest in Ukraine.
From these data is visible that we repay 2 billion more, than we borrow. It is a positive.
the Debt load will decrease, but what price?
Economy of Ukraine grows at rates weaker than global economy of 3.5% against 3.8%
of Investment avoid Ukraine. Last year the sum was insignificant - $2.2 billion, this year it is not expected more.
the Negative that the government for 4 years did not create good business climate and conditions for arrival of investors. The Ukrainian export still raw and its price depends not on our talents, and from global financial the rynkovotritsatelny balance of trade balance increases and in 9 months 3.4 billion (i.e. currencies the country on service of trade leaves more, than comes) made already the Situation labor migrants who in 2018 will send in Ukraine about $12 billion
Well save as will send? If additional taxes force to declare and pay them, then will not send. Generally, the situation such is that the next 4 years Ukraine should pay more than 20 billion debts and is three scenarios successfully to cope with it:
1) Perezanimat for repayment, gradually reducing a debt load.
- it the scenario chose the Cabinet of Ministers.
for this scenario is necessary a loan of the IMF as the symbol of the fact that "it is possible to work with Ukraine "
is the conservative scenario which is not providing serious change of fiscal policy and stimulation of growth of the Ukrainian economy.
- but this scenario has to save us from a default.
- Is not about refusal to pay on debts in pure form, and about restructuring for decrease in a debt load and stimulation of development of economy
- the World is on a threshold of a new economic crisis at which the World will receive at least about ten defaults of developing countries which are long many times more debt of Ukraine. It will not be something unique. - Considering
that Ukraine occupies under 9.5%, and Turkey less than for 2%, the financial world already estimates our country as almost default. Well it is impossible with growth rates eco
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