Date: a month ago   Category: Economy

Five reasons of new financial crisis according to Bloomberg


This week there was a collapse of world indexes. At first the American stock indexes went down, then Asia and Australia joined them: by Thursday, October 11, in a red zone there were all significant exchanges on the planet.

still cannot call It new financial crisis, however journalists of Bloomberg are sure: crisis surely will come. The main reason - the record volume of a world debt and difficulty with its payment. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated a cumulative debt of all countries on the planet at $182 trillion

Bloomberg collected five key risks for world economy and prepared the unfavourable forecast: global crisis can come soon. If, of course, it did not begin any more. A systematic mistake of the survivor Sindromom of the survivor usually call a situation in which about harmful consequences of this or that decision judge only by positive examples. In other words, only those who "survived" get to selection.

of Bloomberg applied this logic to world economy and found the countries which survived in crisis of 2008-2009. Australia, Canada, Sweden and Norway were such states. With approach of last crisis in these countries GDP growth did not stop. They rightfully could be surprised about what in general crisis the speech. For example, economy of Australia it is unceasing 27 years to a row grow.

the Boom in economy inflated a bubble in the local real estate markets. Houses and apartments in the large cities of Australia and Canada break records nearly an every month - only in Sydney in 27 years the cost of square meter increased five times. The considerable part of the real estate is bought in a mortgage - so, together with the prices the debt load of the population grows. If the bubble bursts, the most successful economies on the planet can become a new source of problems. China lives on the credits About China it is accepted to speak as about a new superstate with record GDP at par of consumer ability. On this indicator of the People's Republic of China even advances the United States. Meanwhile a considerable part of growth of the Chinese GDP is based on loans. The volume of a corporate debt of the Chinese business steadily grows, the IMF warns.

In the world is known 43 similar examples in which growth of economy was followed by a comparable ratio of a debt to GDP. Only five of these 43 cases did not come to an end with crash. Other 38 situations, that is 88%, led to large-scale financial crisis, Bloomberg writes. "If it occurs, then will cause a tsunami in the Asia-Pacific markets", - the chief economist of HIS Markit on the Pacific Rim Rajiv Bisvas said. Risks of developing countries Increase in a key interest rate in the United States can provoke a wave of defaults in developing countries, Bloomberg predicts. At such countries big debts in dollars collected - and in the conditions of a capital overflow in the USA the dollar becomes stronger, and it becomes more difficult to the developing economies to repay the currency loans.

to distribute debts, Argentina issued a new loan in the IMF for the record sum in

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