Date: 10 months ago   Category: Economy

Dollar on 36? Markarova has submitted five "shock" scenarios for economy


These scenarios are displayed on debt indicators, influencing the needs for financing and also volume of a public debt, and join in calculations since 2018.

the First scenario "Currency Shock" provides devaluation of hryvnia of 20% during 2018 in comparison with an exchange rate of 30,1 UAH for dollar. That is, it is devaluation up to 36 UAH for dollar. Earlier in the Ministry of Finance explained that growth of dollar exchange rate even for one hryvnia increases a national debt of Ukraine by 40 billion hryvnias.

the Second scenario "Shock of Interest Rates" provides shift up of curve dokhodnost (for an internal and external debt) which will affect instruments of financing.

Third "A stress scenario on the basis of growth of real GDP" places emphasis on probability of falling of rate of a gain of real GDP within three years on 5 items, 3 items and 1 items respectively.

Fourth scenario "Shock of Primary Balance": it is about primary balance of the state budget. The negative balance at the level of 2% of GDP will lead to increase in gross need for financing.

the Fifth scenario "Shock of Conditional Obligations" provides that the firmness of the fiscal sector can worsen in connection with risks of superplanned obligations. It is about threat of increase in load of the state budget for 1 billion dollars annually in 2018-2020. Shock corresponds to realization about 80% of obligations of 94 billion UAH. "In case of Ukraine this risk is connected with the vulnerable banking sector, financial support of public industries, etc.", - it is noted in Strategy. we Will remind

, the Strategy of management of a national debt of Ukraine assumes decrease in an indicator of a debt until the end of 2020 to level not higher than 49% of GDP. As reported in the Ministry of Finance, the level of a national debt of 60% of GDP is considered safe for economy.

It is known that Ukraine wait for serious payments for a national debt. Peak loading on payment is necessary for 2019. The Ministry of Finance believes that entry into the international markets of loans will help to cope with a debt load to Ukraine.

at the same time the prime minister Vladimir Groysman recognized that Ukraine has serious problems with an external debt. The head of the government emphasizes that the high level of a national debt prevents to raise social standards in Ukraine.

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